Algorithms
Theseus runs logical algorithms — functions derived from our principles, applied to live observations of the world. None has yet cleared the bar for public display, so here is what an algorithm is in Theseus terms and what it takes to qualify.
What qualifies an algorithm for public display
What an algorithm means here
An algorithm in Theseus is a logical function derived from a published principle: it reads a live observation of the world, applies the principle's reasoning, and predicts an output that reality later grades.
What qualifies one for public display
- It is derived from at least one published principle — reasoning the firm already stands behind, not a hand-tuned rule.
- It has been promoted to ACTIVE: the firm is willing to be scored on it in public.
- Its predictions are recorded as it fires and graded when reality catches up, so its hit rate is earned, not asserted.
Example method card — Base-rate discipline
- Principle
- Forecasts that ignore the reference class drift toward overconfidence.
- Input
- A new prediction carrying a stated probability and a comparable historical reference class.
- Predicted output
- A flag raised when the stated probability departs from the base rate without a recorded reason.